To read the whole post with graphics, please download here. Last week many Emerging market assets came under pressure following the rise in the US 10 year yield. The sell-off was concentrated in Turkish and Argentine markets, whose FX and thus other assets fell sharply, and in USD sovereign debt more generally, but some other assets came under pressure, admittedly falling just outside recent trading ranges. The sell-off prompted a lot of questions about whether this is a broad-based crisis. I don't think it is? Rather it should be a reminder to look closely at national balance sheets, the quality of growth, fiscal space and resilience.
I’ll try to answer (briefly!) a few key questions in this post: What happened? How have affected central banks responded? How strong are EM fundamentals? Is this another EM-financial crisis (hint: probably not), What would it take for a broader sell-off? what might be the vectors of contagion if it escalated? should we be worried about pegs?
As one would expect given the portfolio effects, which are higher for hard currency debt and equity than local, some other liquid EM saw outflows including Mexico (NAFTA risk), Brazil (election), India and Indonesia (oil and some modest financial contagion) but these seemed modest and are likely to remain so unless there is a meaningful macro risks emanating from China or the U.S. These risks are likely to stay isolated, but add to some growth challenges across relevant regions. Other stronger assets caught in the cross-fire (and even some of the affected assets) may present buying opportunities.
This is unlikely to be the last such bout as investors test the resolve of the Fed to continue normalizing, the significant wave of US bond issuance is absorbed and growth rates stagnate or weaken due to the waning of stimulus and trade policy risks. Higher and rising oil prices – driven by the uncertainties about the Iran deal, continued implosion in Venezuela and profit seeking in Saudi Arabia, only complicate the outlook, causing concerns for oil importing regions and countries, and their consumption and external balance.
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Rachel's musings on macroeconomic issues, policy and more.