Like many people I’ve spent a lot of time over the last week at “2018” Outlook events, reading and writing outlooks. At the risk of adding to the deluge, its worth a few reflections about the status of consensus and where triggers might diverge.
Almost everyone I've spoken to over the last few months is upbeat and sees a continuation of the “synchronized global expansion,"* benign liquidity conditions and pricey valuations getting even more pricey after gains. Some countries and sectors look less resilient, but the general view is quiet positive.
Some are a little worried about 2019 or H2 2018 or Q4 2018 when the effects of balance sheet adjustment might begin to be more priced and when questions escalated on what might be the new drivers of growth. In this context, regulatory uncertainty especially around trade and investment policy might reinforce recent investment trends, as some corporations and households hold off on spending.
Rachel's musings on macroeconomic issues, policy and more.